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Prediction for CME (2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-29T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19004/-1
CME Note: Visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a partial halo to the W in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12936 (N17E10), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 (eruption/EUV wave) and SDO AIA 304 (post-eruptive arcades) beginning 2022-01-29T21:57Z. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-29T22:05Z. Associated with elevated 0.035-0.065 MeV electron flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:15Z and elevated 2.2-12 MeV proton flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:59Z. 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A remained at background level. UPDATE (2022-02-02T12:35Z): Arrival indicated by sudden jumps in density (exceeding 15 per cc), speed (exceeding 470 km/s), temperature, and field amplitude (exceeding 13 nT). This IPS arrival time is the arrival of the sheath, and the flux rope arrived around 2022-02-02T19:43Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-01T21:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-02T04:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-01-30T05:32Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 603
Longitude (deg): E17
Latitude (deg): N09
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Dean Hall

Lead Time: 52.90 hour(s)
Difference: -6.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-01-30T16:43Z

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